Iain Dey
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THE Royal Bank of Scotland is poised to unveil the biggest loss in UK banking history after taking a hit of almost £6 billion from the credit crisis.
Britain’s second-largest bank is this week expected to reveal a pre-tax loss of at least £1 billion for the first six months of the year, with analysts warning it could slide to as much as £1.7 billion in the red.
The loss would be roughly five times higher than the deficit racked up by Barclays in 1992 at the height of the last recession.
RBS chairman Sir Tom McKillop is already under pressure from investors after the bank’s recent £12 billion rights issue. His chief executive, Sir Fred Goodwin, who marks 10 years at the bank this weekend, also faces shareholder scrutiny.
The bank is scouring the world to find three new non-executive directors to shore up its board in response to shareholder concerns.
The RBS figures will cap another terrible week for Britain’s biggest banks as the credit crisis continues to take its toll.
HSBC is expected to write off almost $7 billion (£3.5 billion) in bad debts at its struggling American business from the first six months of the year. The charge will drag its profits roughly 30% lower to about $10 billion.
Barclays is forecast to reveal a 35% drop in profits to £2.6 billion as bad debts around the world, particularly in South Africa, combine with further losses from its exposure to the credit markets.
Some analysts believe Barclays could chalk up another £3 billion of writedowns, in addition to the £1.7 billion it recorded in the first quarter.
The only bright spot will be results from Standard Chartered, which makes its money in emerging markets, particularly in Asia. The bank is expected to announce a 21% jump in profits to $2.4 billion.
Across the banking sector, analysts and investors are fretting about rising bad debts. Figures from HBOS and Lloyds TSB last week revealed that the credit crisis has now worked its way into the real economy, with individuals and companies struggling in almost equal measure.
Both banks announced that bad debts had jumped more than 30%. Alliance & Leicester, which is poised to be sold to Spain’s Santander, revealed that its profits had been wiped out by problems caused by the credit crunch.
All Britain’s big banks are considering selling parts of their businesses. HBOS confirmed last week that it was reviewing a number of potential asset disposals, and admitted it had begun to wind down its off-balance-sheet funding vehicle, Grampian.
Expectations are mounting that the bank’s Australian business could be put up for sale.
RBS is in advanced talks with Allstate, the American insurance group, about a sale of its insurance operations, which include Direct Line and Churchill. Allstate is said to be willing to pay substantially less than the £7 billion asking price attached to the business when RBS put it up for auction in April.
However, RBS holds the business on its balance sheet at a carrying value of only £3 billion. Even a sale priced at £5 billion may prove tempting to Goodwin, who has promised investors that he will generate £4 billion of capital from disposals before the end of the year.
The £3.6 billion sale of Angel Trains, coupled with the £1 billion sale of Tesco Personal Finance and a handful of smaller deals, are thought to have generated about a quarter of the total target.
RBS is also thought to be close to selling an Australian corporate-finance business, acquired when it took over ABN Amro, to Commonwealth Bank of Australia. A sale of Saudi Hollandi Bank could also be on the cards.
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Barclays is forecasting a 35% drop in profits due to Bad Debts in South Africa??? How can SA be the scapegoat for Barclays woes? Yes, there has been a bad debts impact there, but they have been protected from the 'Sub Prime' crisis by good governance! Do you mean S America?
Greg, Johannesburg, S Africa
When I hear about a bank having difficulties it is so gratifying. They merrily charge their customers and overpay their fat cat directors. A curse on them but I daresay the banks will find a way of recouping their losses from their customers.
Mike, Brighton,
Fred has made a irriversible blunder but remarks like good riddance to the banks immature we are stuck with a capitalist system. None existance of the big banks would result in mass unemployment circa 135000 employees of which how many families affected plus the knock on affect would be...
Rob, Bolton,
... the closure of thousands of businesses worldwide that hold a bank account with the main banks. But agreed on the comments about the greed at the top because as the credit crunch tightens the money will still be in the back pockets of the CEO's.
Rob, Bolton,
All businesses have costs to cover and need to make a profit yes the banks have done well as have other businesses it is not stealing it is charging for a service as a decorator would do grow up and be objective rememebr the Americans started it all
claire kirby , Reading , UK
On 28 Feb 2006, Royal Bank of Scotland reported the biggest profits by a British bank for 2005.....£8.2 billion!!!, so this years pretax loss is small in comparision, especially if you consider the last 10 years profits! ...so lets get this years loss into perspective
Eugene, Tallinn, Estonia
My education was state secondary modern, if i had the foresight to see that this crisis was inevitable, then why couldn't university educated executives anticipate this.? The answer is greed, but these people will still receive their golden handshakes and fat bonuses, pensions etc.
PW
Paul Walton, Rotherham, S,Yorks
After irresponsible lending, screwing customers, and profiteering they have now hit hard times. Never mind, unlike us mortgage holders the gov will bail them out. Again.
Lucas Tatek, Herts., uk
I think this is absolutely side-splittingly funny. The RBS (and banks like it... especially the HSBC) have been stealing from the man in the street now for years and years in the form of their £32-ish fees for the slightest oversight. If you owe them any money DO NOT PAY IT! They are all going bust!
harry lime, Leeds, UK
Pace 'A gregory' I always thought it was more like 60 times the amount deposited the banks conjured but I admit to being one of the great clueless.
But not clueless in denial. Our banks are insolvent alright. Kaput and good riddance.
William Boyd, Penygroes, Gwynedd
The world-wide depression has begun slowly and will last at least and more likely 4-5 years.
Peter of Lone Tree, Lone Tree,
The 'private' banks invent money out of thin air. You pay them back with real blood. Economic Cycles are created. Insider trading, the rule. Failures to pay are covered by the government 'bailouts' where you pay via tax again. The banks use your house as collateral. FRB as high as 69 x. It's crime!
Rob O'Loughlin, Presteigne, Powys
British Banks and companies are in crisis mode, like the Govt. they have windows without curtains, Doors without locks, cars without spare tyres, overeducated Board, and unfriendly customer services plus don't forget the whole system is unconscious and have no medicine that they can prescribe.
Harish Shah, Croydon, UK
Wait for it...next thing we'll see is the directors getting million pound bonuses just like last year.
No-one takes responsibility for anything these days (unless it is good news of course).
Bailey, Reading, UK
Every cloud has a silver lining - now the abcess has been burst and this pain will wipe the slate clean and the banks can start off on a new footing. The markets always right themselves in the end - it's just a shame it has to go so far before the necessary correction.
Nick Michael, Nyon, Switzerland
The "consumer economy" was always a mockery. The more people consumed, the more GDP went up. Of course, GDP measures output, not wealth creation; but in a cartoon economy, who can tell the difference?
Tom Bell, NSW, Australia
I am sure the executives on the board of RBS will do their best to steer the bank through this most difficult time by er, stuffing their remuneration packages with even more money and benefits.
SRB, Abergele, UK
Money is not real. Money is a promis that hopefully you will keep and will be accepted. The banks don't hold money, they hold our promises to repay favours. It's our efforts that give money it's value. When we provide a product or service of value, that's why money has a value.
Wayland Sothcott, Braintree, UK
I'm not sure that this was the biggest banking loss ever, after all there was that time they burnt the Templars at the stake. Just a thought, but maybe private institutions should not be allowed to create money and then lend it out at interest?
Benjamin, Albany,
How much of a nuclear power station can I build with the money a bank looses in 6 months?
Are the regulators investigating such losses?
Dave, Chorley,
It takes a different kind of captain to ride the storm through choppy waters and have we got ANY? Banks can start reducing their property overheads by moving up to first floors, reduce expense accounts and take accountability for their self inflicted losses. Bad judgements all round.
Theresa Felsinger, London, UK
Firstly, one has to ask how exactly banks with proper controls in place can actually lose money on dodgy business?
Secondly, as an RBS shareholder, Id like to know what Freds plans are to increase the value of the share price and if he doesnt have any, Id like to know when he plans on resigning.
Bob Dobalina, London, Uk
The banks have been caught out holding assets in the form of paper promises backed by bubble values of assets (property)owned by people who are not capable of paying the interest, let alone the principle back. It is on such a huge scale that it now seems to have taken on a life of its own - down!!!
David Nammory, Liverpool,
I worked for Natwest before RBS took them over and then all of a sudden historic profits of Natwest looked small beer compared to this Scottish saviour. They encouraged staff to invest their money and know we are all bearing the losses. Had any of us acted in the way that the board did we'd be fired
John Smith, Birmingham,
I hope investors and clients treat RBS the way they are treated when they are in financial difficulties. OH how the mighty have fallen. Pull out your money and investments and tell them to get their house in order. Arrogance always gets you in the end. Were the Scots not supposed to me money smart?
Lloyd, London,
If you lost 10% of that the bank would be calling you 10 times a day wanting their money back. Boot is on the other foot maybe we let them know what it feels like.
Lloyd, London,
I do hope investors and clients alike treat RBS the way they are treated when they are in financial difficulties. OH how the mighty have fallen. Pull out your money and investments and tell them to get their house in order. Arrogance always gets you in the end.
Lloyd, London,
I worked for HBOS until two weeks ago when I was made redundant from a profitable part of the organisation!! What amazes me is the fact that senior execs and board members let th guys on the ground take the hits for their poor judgement!
Jay, Crewe,
I am THRILLED...of all the banks RBS and Natwest support companies in oil and gas which are RUINING the environment and are causing serious global warming... a fact they like to keep secret !!
roo sparkles, nice, france
These Banks have yet to feel the full effect of their Mortgage lending in the UK.....
If these banks truly want to change themselves going fwd then they MUST have a proper Risk Management function which is empowered to say NO. Until or unless such an truly empowered unit is created expect no change
Ian, Madison, USA
I am always amazed that people have little clue as to how banks operate and how they "make money". They create money from debt. By operating a fractional reserve system banks can create roughly 12 times the amount "deposited". You have to be a real dumbo organisation not to make money in banking.
A gregory, Warwick RI, USA
As someone who works for RBS in the corporate banking group, I can confirm that there are precious few within RBS who ever thought the ABN deal was a good one. Better to have walked away completely and left it to Barclays rather than overpay in worsening market conditions just to save face.
Vic, London,
Ummmm! Only £6 billion. when Gordon Brown started taking this amount from the Private Pension Funds ANNUALLY, he seemed to think that it was an insignificant amount of money.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
Banks loose money when they lend money to people who do not pay it back. Very simple
Roger Sherrin, Nairobi, Kenya
As an investor in RBS, I have lost confidence in both the Chairman and the Chief Executive, because they have made serious blunders in the management of such a great bank with sterling assets. They cannot be trusted any longer to safely manage this great Bank. They should both resign with respect.
C.Krishnamoorthy, New Malden, England
it's very interesting that we seem to have massively inflated losses after a decade of low inflation. Someone has been fudging the figures to keep interest rates down. Who would do a thing like that????? Mr Brown's secret to no more boom and bust.
Rav, birmngham,
Sir Tom McKillop, will he lose his job? No, of course not. Now if had been one of his workers who had lost a fraction of the amount he has lost.......
Mike, Sole Street, England
All the banks have been hit by the 'black swan' in the shape of the collapse of the sub-prime market.
RBOS investors did very well last year out of the £6.6. billion profit and need to remember that profits go down as well as up.
Peter Thomson, Kirkcudbright, Scotland
How will this affect Edinburgh he aks? Don't these guys have a professional education, experience and common sense? What are they thinking? The trouble is they all get away with it. The List goes on...
Concerned UK Expat
China.
David Ojah, Guangdong , China
This is a shocker . Surely , RBS would have controls - in form of internal audits ,risk controls , etc . Where were they ?
naik , london, uk
Fred the Shred ripping into RBS's profits this time..
chris, london, uk
And just when a dividend was due,dont hold your breath. Unfortunately I was stupid enough to buy RBS shares with my hard earned, you may call it an interest free loan non refundable,ive learnt my lesson!
paul, christchurch, uk
As the fifth largest banking group in the world, I'd say they are world bankers. Sour grapes eh Jerome?
Andrew, Abu Dhabi,
I suppose that Goodwin and the other directors will still be accepting their big bonuses. Has it ever occurred to them that payment for failure is not acceptable to the ordinary tax-payer and shareholder?
David, Poole,
The seeds of decline are sown in the arrogance of success. Having created Direct Line, RBS & sleepy William & Glyns deluded themselves into believing that they were world bankers. Like Gordon Brown who gave away the nations gold, RBS is having to give away the goose that laid its golden egg!
Jerome Whitney, London, UK
Yes Max from London - it is he!
I remember thinking at the time that he was taking a great risk with AMB Amro, Barclays must be sort of laughing!
Ben, Norwich,
Why do so many people seem to hate banks? They provide an invaluable service and their services are often free in the case of current accounts. In terms of selling on mortgages, banks did this in order to free up capital and balance sheet to enable them to lend more, this reduced th interest rate borrowers paid, good for both the bank and consumer.
CJ, London, UK
These failed bankers have got their snouts set on taxpayers cash, now that their regular scams are falling apart.
As likely near-future public employees, can I ask what civil service pay scale they will be on?
Michael, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
Next year is going to be worse; the losses from American bad loans will continue and losses from domestic bad loans will increase.
Costas, Cyprus,
The FSA, The Bank of England and our prudent Chancellor presided over the banks lending 100% mortgages. The Government encouraged it because it boosted the economy but they did not care about the consequences. Anybody with half a brain knows that all booms end some time and most end in bust.
David, Hereford, UK
RBS have made the same mistakes as Natwest in the 90s. They have made bad decisions on spending their money. They have acquired banks in America in markets that they have no experience. Buying ABN was a vanity decision. They have spent millions on a new HQ that is not needed. Fred Goodwin must go.
Curtis , london, UK
The greed and creative accountancy along with the total mis management of the banks should be held accountable to the public. Instead of huge bonuses and being lauded by the city. It is time we got back to more open accountability of the banks. The depositors are being kept in the dark, disgustin
ann, london, UK
P Barrett, the reality is that retail banking is usually a relatively small part of how banks make their money. The credit crunch and the losses the banks are suffering are to do with exposure to re-packaged debt and interbank lending.
Dorothy, London, UK
Banks are losing money partly due to the amount of bad debt. If debts cannot be repaid then clearly they will lose money. The rest of your argument makes little sense. Banks typically pay 4-6% interest on savings and lend at approx 7-9%. This is neither theft nor exorbitant.
Phillip Thomson, Glasgow,
Agree with P Barret, sadly the "Goods in excess of the Debt" are proving "Worthless". I am amazed that "If it is true?"most mortgages by most lenders are "Packaged and then "Sold On". If I had a Mortgage with say "Nationwide, that is who I would have thought I owed the Money too"
Amazed Punter!
Paul, Newtown, Powys, UK
Er, excuse me but is that the same Sir Fred Goodwin whom the markets were swooning over 12 months ago because of his brilliant strategy for the bank?
Seems to me he's nothing but a screw-up, so I'm sure he'll be unceremoniously sacked - without a huge pay-off.
Or, am I being naiive?
Max, London,
the falling house price would tell you why
^_^
Chris Tan, Leeds, UK
the falling house price would tell you why
^_^
Chris Tan, Portsmouth, UK
The RBS loss reflects the impact of the credit crunch only. Things will become much worse when the unfolding recession hits with high unemployment, increase corporate bankruptcies and worsening property market. All UK banks are sailing into a hurricane. As in the US, be careful where you keep money.
Ron, Oxon,
Its simple - Banks perform badly because they are poorly managed.
It's a people business and few have accomplished man-managers on their top team.
Another deficiency soon to become apparent is the lack of experience in managing the bad times.
Retired bankers - dry clean those dark suits!
Chris Claridge, Singapore,
And Gordon Brown liked to lecture Europe about how they should follow the anglo-saxon model of capitalism! Don't see any British banks buying up European ones!
Cyril Mitchell, Dumfries, Scotland
I find it so hard to understand how banks can be loosing money. They hold our cash, pay little or no interest, charge rates bordering on theft for any but the basic transaction. You borrow from the bank at exorbitant interest rates and the debt is covered by goods in excess of the debt.
P Barrett, Valletta, Malta