Hong Kong Forecast Report

Contents

 
BMI’s Hong Kong Risk Ratings are presented in a series of tables and charts with bullet-point analyses, covering the following key areas:
short and long-term political stability
short and long-term economic performance and outlook
the business operating and investment climate for Hong Kong

BMI’s Asia Ratings League Tables will help you to benchmark Hong Kong against other Asian countries’ performance by business environment rating, long and short-term political rating and long and short-term economic rating. The tables immediately indicate Hong Kong’s performance compared to other Asian neighbours and illustrate trend analysis.

 
Political stability: The Hong Kong Forecast Report assesses all key factors impacting on political stability over the 3-year forecast period.

Current administration: BMI profiles key policy-makers and power-brokers in the government, assessing the prospects for, and threats to, continuity in government economic policy and the business environment over the next three years.

Foreign relations: BMI analyses international trade, investment and lending driving government foreign relations and policy, and examines individual relations with Asian neighbours, Japan, the United States and Europe.

 
The Hong Kong Forecast Report comprises latest- available economic data, estimates and forecasts brought together in 60 tables, graphs and charts, with value added independent commentary and analysis from BMI’s team of Asia specialists.

Economic Activity: BMI reviews government and independent forecasts for Hong Kong, supported by detailed breakdowns, analysis and BMI forecasts through end-2005 for these key macroeconomic indicators, including historic data series over 1994-2002:
GDP – real GDP growth
Industrial growth – productivity sector analysis
Employment – growth, trends, regional / urban / rural disparities
Inflation – consumer price
Consumption – indicative wages, retail sales, consumer confidence

Fiscal Policy:
Current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies
Government finance – revenue, expenditure, budget balance
Tax reforms

Exchange Rate Policy:
Currency controls
Influence of foreign direct investment inflows
Exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves

Monetary Policy:
Interest rate trends – bank lending and deposit rates
Inflation – retail price inflation, consumer price inflation

Balance of Payments:
Merchandise trade - exports, imports, trade balance
Current account balance

Foreign Direct Investment:
Foreign Direct Investment approvals and inflows
Business operating environment

External Debt:
Debt profile: short term and long term debt
BMI analysis and forecasts for all major industry sectors: industry analysis by structure and size; recent performance; government policy toward regulation, privatisation, foreign participation, profit remittance, labour and IP rights; recent and pending changes in the business environment; major players, both state-owned companies and multinational participants; plus sector-by-sector forecasts covering output, consumption, revenues, foreign trade and investment.

Industry sectors covered: Agriculture; Banking and financial services; Construction and property; Manufacturing and all its sub-sectors; Oil, energy and mining; Telecoms, media and technology; Tourism; Transport and Utilities.

 
BMI’s central forecast scenario for the global economy: BMI presents its 3-year forecast through end-2005 for the global economy, focusing on GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, trade, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices in the USA, Japan, and Euro-zone.